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Nassim Nicholas Taleb könyvei a rukkolán


Nassim Nicholas Taleb - The ​Black Swan
What ​have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', "The Black Swan" shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Skin ​in the Game
#1 ​NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - A bold new work from the author of The Black Swan that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility In his most provocative and practical book yet, one of the foremost thinkers of our time redefines what it means to understand the world, succeed in a profession, contribute to a fair and just society, detect nonsense, and influence others. Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi to Seneca, Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows how the willingness to accept one's own risks is an essential attribute of heroes, saints, and flourishing people in all walks of life. As always both accessible and iconoclastic, Taleb challenges long-held beliefs about the values of those who spearhead military interventions, make financial investments, and propagate religious faiths. Among his insights: - For social justice, focus on symmetry and risk sharing. You cannot make profits and transfer the risks to others, as bankers and large corporations do. You cannot get rich without owning your own risk and paying for your own losses. Forcing skin in the game corrects this asymmetry better than thousands of laws and regulations. - Ethical rules aren't universal. You're part of a group larger than you, but it's still smaller than humanity in general. - Minorities, not majorities, run the world. The world is not run by consensus but by stubborn minorities imposing their tastes and ethics on others. - You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot. "Educated philistines" have been wrong on everything from Stalinism to Iraq to low-carb diets. - Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find). A simple barbell can build muscle better than expensive new machines. - True religion is commitment, not just faith. How much you believe in something is manifested only by what you're willing to risk for it. The phrase "skin in the game" is one we have often heard but rarely stopped to truly dissect. It is the backbone of risk management, but it's also an astonishingly rich worldview that, as Taleb shows in this book, applies to all aspects of our lives. As Taleb says, "The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that's necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster," and "Never trust anyone who doesn't have skin in the game. Without it, fools and crooks will benefit, and their mistakes will never come back to haunt them."

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Antifragile
Nassim ​Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world. Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls antifragile are things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. Here Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What's more, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call "efficient" not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems and medicine, drawing on modern street wisdom and ancient sources. Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: the antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge and has led three careers around this focus, as a businessman-trader, a philosophical essayist, and an academic researcher. Although he now spends most of his time working in intense seclusion in his study, in the manner of independent scholars, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is "decision making under opacity," that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don't understand. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in thirty-three languages. Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Fooled ​by Randomness - The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
Everyone ​wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. This irreverent bestseller has shattered the illusions of people around the world by teaching them how to recognize randomness. Now it can do the same for you.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - A ​fekete hattyú
A ​szerző jelenleg az amhersti egyetem Bizonytalanságtudományok Tanszékének professzora, egész pályafutása során a szerencse, a bizonytalanság, a valószínűség és a tudás problémáival foglalkozik. Először 2007-ben, majd 2010-ben átdolgozott, bővített formában megjelent A fekete hattyú című kötete az Egyesült Államokban és Kanadában is nagy sikert ért el. Mint egyik recenzense megjegyezte: „A fekete hattyú mérföldkő a könyvek sorában - maga is fekete hattyú.” Taleb fejtegetése szerint a fekete hattyú a rendkívül valószínűtlen események jelképe, amelyeknek három jellegzetességük van: előreláthatatlanok, tömeghatást váltanak ki, és utólag tudunk rájuk olyan magyarázatot találni, amelynek nyomán kevésbé esetlegesnek, előreláthatóbbnak látszanak, mint eredetileg. Ilyen fekete hattyú volt a Google sikere vagy 2001. szeptember 11. Taleb éveken át tanulmányozta, hogyan csapjuk be magunkat, és hitetjük el magunkkal, hogy többet tudunk annál, mint amennyit valójában tudunk. Ebben a könyvben megpróbálja felnyitni szemünket: összegyűjti mindazt, amit arról tudunk, amit nem tudunk. Meglepően egyszerű trükköket kínál arra, hogyan bánjunk a fekete hattyúkkal, és miként hajtsunk hasznot belőlük.

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